He’s making a comeback.
On Tuesday, MSNBC’s Steve Kornacki discussed former President Trump’s current standing in the polls, where he is trailing Vice President Kamala Harris by three points. Kornacki pointed out that this is not an unusual position for Trump, who has previously overcome larger deficits in past elections. He noted that for Republicans, Trump’s current situation might be less concerning compared to his positions in previous cycles, especially since he has managed to turn around worse situations before.
The latest national polling shows Harris leading Trump by 48% to 45%, with the election approaching in just under two months. Kornacki compared this to 2016 when Trump was trailing Hillary Clinton by an average of five points after Labor Day but eventually won. In 2020, Trump was even further behind Joe Biden, yet he still managed to make a strong showing in the Electoral College.
Democrats might find Harris’s lead reassuring, as it contrasts with President Biden’s lower poll numbers before he exited the race. However, CNN’s Henry Enten and polling expert Nate Silver both noted that Trump has historically been underestimated in polls. Enten highlighted that Trump was underestimated by nine points in 2016 and by three points in 2020 in critical states, suggesting that his current standing should not be dismissed.
Silver echoed these sentiments, emphasizing that there are still several months left in the election cycle and the potential for polling inaccuracies. He noted that Harris’s current lead is narrow and within the margin of error, suggesting that Trump remains a significant contender and that past polling trends could still influence the outcome.
