It’s a swing state.
On Thursday, data analyst Nate Silver suggested that Vice President Kamala Harris might face challenges in Pennsylvania, a key battleground state with 19 electoral votes that could decide the presidential election. According to Silver, while Harris is leading by 3.8 points in national polls and is expected to win the popular vote, his election forecast model gives former President Trump a 52.4% chance of winning the presidency compared to Harris’s 47.3% chance.
Silver noted that despite Harris’s lead in national polling, she is not performing well in Pennsylvania, which often plays a crucial role in deciding elections. The most recent Emerson College poll shows Trump and Harris neck-and-neck at 48% each in Pennsylvania. Both candidates are heavily campaigning in the state, which remains a focal point in their strategies.
Silver’s model reflects concerns that Harris may be at a disadvantage in Pennsylvania, especially given that she is only tied in polls during what should be a favorable period for her. He highlighted that if she were to win the popular vote by a small margin, the model estimates she would still face a significant challenge in the Electoral College, with a 70% chance of losing.
However, Silver also pointed out that Harris’s late entry into the race could influence his model’s accuracy. He acknowledged that the forecast might be less precise under the current circumstances and noted the potential for unexpected developments in the coming months. Silver previously indicated that Harris would be a slight favorite if the election were held at that moment but cautioned that polls have often underestimated Trump’s support in past elections.
