Does she think she has won?
Nikki Haley’s campaign in Iowa appears to be strategizing with a focused effort on registered Republicans rather than actively targeting independent or Democratic voters. Despite a substantial pool of registered independents in the state, Haley’s team, notably led by Americans for Prosperity Action, is predominantly engaging registered Republicans, citing their historical tendency to participate in caucuses.
The Republican Party in Iowa permits voters to switch party affiliations on caucus night, a detail that potentially offers an opportunity to sway non-Republicans. However, recent historical data hasn’t shown significant efforts by campaigns to target these independents, given their low turnout in past caucuses.
Although Haley has showcased a more moderate stance on certain issues compared to her conservative counterparts like Ron DeSantis, her campaign hasn’t prioritized explicit outreach or targeted advertising to attract non-GOP voters. Despite this, her team asserts that Haley’s message resonates broadly, welcoming support from independents without specifically detailing tailored tactics to attract them.
Interestingly, independents could play a crucial role in Haley’s bid against non-Trump Republican contenders. Surveys indicate her lead among Iowa independents against DeSantis, although trailing significantly overall against likely caucusgoers. Unlike in Iowa, in New Hampshire, there’s a concerted effort by the super PAC Independents for Nikki, investing over a million dollars to directly engage a sizable independent voter pool through ads.
While Haley’s campaign aims to expand the party’s base, particularly by attracting independents, there’s skepticism about the enthusiasm for party switching specifically to support her. Conversations with Iowa voters, such as Carol Petersen, reveal intentions to change party registrations but not necessarily to support Haley.
The strategy echoes previous attempts, like Liz Cheney’s campaign, which aimed to persuade non-GOP voters to switch affiliations. Despite a substantial decrease in registered Democratic and independent voters, signaling a potential shift, the tangible impact on the primary outcome did not align with the campaign’s aspirations.
Overall, while the potential for appealing to independents exists, the historical pattern and current data suggest a challenging path in Iowa for Haley to rally substantial non-GOP support on caucus night.
