Trump is slowly winning over the minority.
Recent polling conducted by USA TODAY/Suffolk University indicates a noteworthy shift in support among racial minority voters for President Joe Biden. The data suggests that Donald Trump, the probable GOP nominee, holds a slight lead over Biden. In a head-to-head comparison, Trump secured 39% support while Biden received 37%, with 17% of respondents favoring third-party candidates.
Expanding the survey to include third-party candidates widened Trump’s lead to 37% against Biden’s 34%, with independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. garnering 10% support. This survey, based on phone interviews with 1,000 likely U.S. voters, has an approximate margin of error of 3.1 percentage points.
The findings also highlighted Trump’s edge among voters under 35 (37% to 33%) and Hispanic voters (39% to 34%). Additionally, 20% of both black and Hispanic voters expressed an intention to vote for third-party candidates.
David Paleologos, Suffolk’s Political Research Center director, pointed out that while Trump’s support among black voters didn’t notably increase, the narrowing gap between candidates stemmed from a shift in third-party support away from Biden within this demographic.
A separate NBC News poll released in September unveiled a substantial decline in Biden’s support among African American and Hispanic voters between 2021 and 2023. Approval ratings among African American voters decreased from 80% to 63%, while among Latino voters, they dropped from 61% to 43% during the same period.
Nate Cohn, The New York Times’ chief political analyst, also addressed this trend, emphasizing the declining support among minority voters for Biden, pivotal constituencies that played a crucial role in his 2020 victory. Cohn stressed the significance of revitalizing this support, warning that failure to do so could perpetuate a long-term decline in Democratic strength within these voter groups.
