She’s currently doing worse than him.
Vice President Kamala Harris is trailing behind President Biden’s 2020 performance across several key demographic groups, a disparity that could significantly impact the upcoming election, which is expected to be highly competitive.
Democratic strategist Julian Epstein highlighted this issue, noting that Harris is notably underperforming compared to Biden with Black, Hispanic, and working-class voters, as well as younger voters. According to a recent Wall Street Journal analysis, Harris lags behind Biden’s 2020 numbers in these critical demographics. Specifically, she is about 10 percentage points behind Biden among Black voters, 6 points behind with Latino voters, and 12 points behind with voters under 30. Additionally, she trails Biden by 4 points among male voters and 2 points among female voters.
In contrast, former President Trump has been making gains with minority communities, a traditionally challenging area for Republicans. Recent data shows that Trump has secured support from 20% of Black men and is nearly tied with Harris among Latino men, trailing her by just one point.
These dynamics may explain why President Biden has recently been campaigning alongside Harris, aiming to boost her standing and leverage his own rising approval ratings. A USA Today/Suffolk poll indicated a 13-point increase in Biden’s approval rating over the past few months. If Harris is unable to close the gap among minority groups, the analysis suggests she might focus on increasing her appeal to white voters, a demographic with significant influence in elections. Despite trailing Biden’s 2020 figures among some minority groups, Harris has shown stronger performance among white voters, especially in critical swing states.
Epstein remarked that Harris is excelling with college-educated voters and suburban women, suggesting a potential realignment where the Democratic Party becomes more associated with elites and the Republican Party with the working class. However, winning over more white voters could help Harris make up for losses in minority groups, as white voters constitute a large portion of the electorate. The Harris campaign has not yet responded to inquiries regarding these challenges.
