Is he hurting Trump’s election prospects?
In the latest national NBC News poll, the influence of third-party candidates, particularly independent contender Robert F. Kennedy Jr., is notable for its impact on former President Donald Trump’s voter base rather than President Joe Biden’s, albeit within the poll’s margin of error.
In a direct head-to-head matchup, Trump maintains a slim 2-percentage-point lead over Biden, with 46% to 44% respectively, according to the NBC News poll. However, when the ballot expands to include five named candidates, Biden emerges with a 2-point advantage, garnering 39% compared to Trump’s 37%, with Kennedy at 13%, Jill Stein at 3%, and Cornel West at 2%. This shift is primarily attributed to a larger portion of Trump supporters in the head-to-head scenario opting for Kennedy in the expanded ballot. Notably, 15% of respondents initially favoring Trump switch to Kennedy in the five-way ballot, in contrast to 7% of those initially supporting Biden. Additionally, Republican respondents exhibit a significantly more favorable view of Kennedy (40% positive, 15% negative) compared to Democratic respondents (16% positive, 53% negative).
Democratic pollster Jeff Horwitt, in collaboration with Republican pollster Bill McInturff, acknowledges that Kennedy’s appeal appears to resonate more with Trump’s supporters at this stage.
This finding challenges conventional political wisdom and contradicts the results of other national polls, which typically suggest that a larger third-party vote undermines Biden’s prospects. McInturff suggests two potential interpretations: either the NBC News poll is an outlier or it signals a broader trend yet to fully manifest.
In response to Kennedy’s growing influence, the Biden campaign has actively sought to divert support away from him, including recent efforts such as an event featuring members of the Kennedy family endorsing Biden over their relative.
The heightened attention on Kennedy by both parties is evident, with increased mobilization of new super PACs and Democratic National Committee initiatives aimed at minimizing the impact of his candidacy.
