Voters don’t seem to want another rematch.
In the latest national NBC News poll, findings reveal a notable decline in voter enthusiasm for the 2024 election, reaching levels not seen in nearly two decades. This lack of fervor coincides with prevailing negative sentiments toward both President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump.
Biden has narrowed Trump’s lead to a mere 2 points in a head-to-head matchup, a statistical improvement from previous surveys. The president outperforms Trump on issues like abortion and national unity, while the former president maintains an advantage in competency and addressing inflation. The poll identifies inflation and immigration as the primary concerns among voters, with only a third attributing economic improvements to Biden.
However, what distinguishes this survey is the combination of low voter engagement and the emergence of an independent candidacy by Robert F. Kennedy Jr., potentially destabilizing what has been a relatively stable presidential race with over six months until Election Day. In a head-to-head comparison, Trump leads Biden by 2 points, but Biden edges ahead by the same margin in a five-way race involving Kennedy and other third-party candidates.
The sentiments of voters like Devin Fletcher from Michigan, who expresses disappointment in the choices available, echo the broader disillusionment evident in the survey. Similarly, another respondent from New Jersey, disillusioned with both candidates, expresses a reluctance to participate in the electoral process.
Democratic pollster Jeff Horwitt observes that while political polarization is rampant, a shared sentiment among Americans is a disinterest in the current election cycle. This sentiment is reflected in the poll, conducted amidst a backdrop of significant events including Trump’s legal proceedings and heightened geopolitical tensions.
The poll data indicates that only 64% of registered voters express a high level of interest in the upcoming election, a stark decline compared to previous presidential cycles. This lack of enthusiasm has remained relatively constant over recent months, indicating a potential challenge for predicting voter turnout.
According to Republican pollster Bill McInturff, historically high levels of interest have correlated with turnout in presidential elections, suggesting a lower overall turnout in 2024 compared to 2020. Among party lines, Republicans demonstrate slightly higher interest compared to Democrats, while independents and younger voters exhibit notably lower levels of engagement.
Overall, the poll underscores a prevailing sense of disillusionment and disengagement among voters, pointing towards a potentially subdued electoral landscape in the upcoming presidential race.
