He has a dominant position.
Propelled by solid support from evangelical Christians, first-time caucus participants, and registered Republicans, former President Donald Trump commands a substantial lead of almost 30 points in the latest NBC News/Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa poll, marking the final assessment before the upcoming GOP caucuses on Monday.
This survey underscores Trump’s significant advantage among the most dedicated and fervent likely caucus attendees, a crucial factor considering the challenging weather conditions anticipated on caucus night. As temperatures plummet, Trump’s backing from committed supporters becomes increasingly pivotal.
Expressing confidence in Trump’s suitability for the role, Owen Monds, a 34-year-old respondent from Des Moines, stated, “I recognize there’s substantial controversy surrounding him, but I genuinely believe he’s the right person for the job at this moment. I don’t see anyone else in the running who possesses the qualifications he does.” The poll indicates that former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley is narrowly surpassing Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis for the second spot, though the gap falls within the margin of error.
While Haley’s primary support has seen a slight increase, only 9% of her backers express extreme enthusiasm for her candidacy, significantly lower than the fervor for both Trump and DeSantis. Pollster J. Ann Selzer notes a potential vulnerability in Haley’s standing, suggesting that a disproportionate share of her supporters might abstain from participating if turnout is low.
According to the long-standing Iowa poll conducted by Selzer, Trump secures the first-choice preference of 48% of likely Republican caucusgoers, with Haley at 20%, DeSantis at 16%, and entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy at 8%. Although Trump’s lead has slightly decreased from the December poll, maintaining this advantage on caucus night would mark the largest margin of victory for a nonincumbent in Iowa’s Republican presidential caucuses.
Trump’s robust support spans key demographics, including evangelical Christians (51% first-choice support), registered Republicans (54%), first-time caucusgoers (56%), and likely caucus attendees without college degrees (59%).
While Haley’s first-choice support has risen, her backing predominantly comes from independents (33% support) and those with college degrees (27%). Notably, half of Haley’s supporters identify as independents (39%) or Democrats (11%), a notable departure from the overall composition of likely GOP caucusgoers.
DeSantis, with 16% first-choice support, experiences a slight decline from December, particularly among evangelicals (22% support). The poll also indicates that Trump remains in a commanding position, albeit with a slight decrease, while the competition intensifies for the coveted second place, with no clear contender emerging.
The survey, ongoing during former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie’s campaign suspension on Jan. 10, reflects minimal changes in the overall landscape, underscoring the enduring strength of key candidates as Iowa’s GOP caucuses draw near.
