The winner will decide what happens in the future.
In the midst of a nation divided along political lines, there is a remarkable consensus among Americans regarding the impending 2024 elections—a shared concern about the precarious state of democracy and the profound impact the outcome will exert on its future trajectory.
Despite this unity of sentiment, there exists a stark divergence in the identification of the perceived threat. According to a recent survey conducted by The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research, a substantial 62% of adults believe that the fate of U.S. democracy hangs in the balance, contingent upon the victor in the upcoming electoral battle. Notably, both Democrats (72%) and Republicans (55%) share this apprehension, though their motivations differ significantly.
President Joe Biden articulates a dystopian narrative, cautioning against the return of former President Donald Trump to the White House. Biden paints a bleak picture, expressing concerns about Trump’s potential retribution against adversaries and the prospect of him wielding executive powers recklessly. In contrast, Trump contends that the allegations of election subversion and legal actions against him underscore Biden’s misuse of federal authority to prosecute a political foe, branding the current president as the “destroyer of American democracy.”
Political analysts discern distinct anxieties on both ends of the spectrum. From the left, there is a palpable unease about electing a leader with authoritarian inclinations, someone inclined to diminish governmental checks and balances, thereby augmenting the power of the presidency in unprecedented ways. Conversely, Republicans are preoccupied with concerns of government overreach, the encroachment of big government, and perceived threats to individual freedom, coupled with apprehensions about mandated policies.
Within this context, approximately half of U.S. adults (51%) express skepticism about the efficacy of democracy, asserting that it is functioning either “not too well” or “not well at all.” The survey also gauged the significance attributed to various issues in the upcoming presidential election, revealing that 67% of respondents consider the outcome pivotal to the future of U.S. democracy, ranking closely behind concerns about the economy (75%).
The prevailing sentiment is emblematic of a broader trend in Americans’ disillusionment with the functionality of their democratic system. This disenchantment extends to diverse issues, spanning immigration, abortion, and the economy, as citizens perceive a governance system that falls short in representing their interests adequately.
Political observers, like Robert Lieberman of Johns Hopkins University, highlight the convergence of factors that historically precipitate the decline of democracies—polarization, escalating ethnic or racial tensions, widening economic disparities, and the concentration of power within the executive branch. While Trump is not identified as the root cause, his actions and authoritarian impulses exacerbate existing challenges, deepening divisions.
The survey also reveals stark partisan divides on the anticipated consequences of a second term for either Trump or Biden. Democrats and independents foresee a deterioration of democracy under Trump, while Republicans fear a weakening of democratic institutions with another Biden victory.
Importantly, a notable portion of the population (19%) believes that U.S. democracy is already so critically broken that the outcome of the 2024 election is inconsequential. Such sentiments are more pronounced among Republicans (23%) than Democrats (10%).
The role of information ecosystems, including social media and news outlets, is underscored as contributors to polarization. These platforms reinforce existing biases, fostering a perception that the opposing political faction poses the greatest threat to the nation’s democracy. As Lilliana Mason, an associate professor of political science at Johns Hopkins, notes, individuals are not exaggerating; rather, they inhabit information environments that substantiate their perception of democracy being under siege.
Furthermore, concerns extend beyond political rhetoric to actions at the state level, encompassing issues like political gerrymandering, threats to voting rights, and measures limiting easy access to voting. The impact of these factors on marginalized communities, particularly people of color, adds another layer to the apprehension about the democratic health of the nation.
In the final analysis, the survey paints a vivid picture of a nation grappling with multifaceted anxieties about the state of its democracy. It reflects not only a divergence of political ideologies but a pervasive sense of disillusionment with the current political landscape, fueled by concerns about power imbalances, erosion of rights, and the erosion of democratic norms. The 2024 elections, in the eyes of many Americans, symbolize a critical juncture that will shape the trajectory of U.S. democracy for years to come.
